Climate policy was an issue for the previous government, leading to a loss of trust in the previous prime minister, and was among Gillard's missteps leading up to the election. What happens next is unclear, however it looks like the Green party is ready to flex a bit of muscle by pushing out Labor's climate change minister Penny Wong.
Much remains unclear. Here is how Reuters summarized the agreement on climate between Gillard and the Greens:
Climate policy is the biggest area to change under the Labor-Greens agreement. Gillard has agreed to set up a new climate committee of lawmakers and experts, who will work toward a policy to price carbon pollution. That will now take precedence over Gillard's election policy of holding an assembly of 150 people, to build a community consensus for carbon trading. The agreement makes no mention of government plans for carbon trading, or the Greens' wish for an interim carbon tax.The Greens did do Gillard the favor of relegating her roundly criticized "citizens' assembly" to a historical footnote.
The really important question, of course, is whether my analysis of Australia's proposed emissions reduction targets gets published before the next election occurs. I handicap the odds at less than 50-50. You can see an updated version here:
Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2010 (submitted). An Evaluation of the Targets and Timetables of the Proposed Australian Emissions Trading Scheme, Environmental Science & Policy.
8 comments:
In the process of winning over the independents, Gillard committed to not calling an early election.
I agree it is unlikely that this government survives for three years. But it is not at all clear that its failure will be followed by new elections.
The bottom line is no action, just more talk.
It will depend on how big the Great Unhinging becomes:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/09/08/let-the-great-unhinging-begin/
On your suggestion that we may need to employ creative accounting strategies, LOL. We INVENTED them (see Clive Hamilton's work on LULUCF)
@Abdul Abulbul Amir: no action, all talk was exactly what Gillard promised in the election campaign: no action on a carbon price before the next election.
Thanks for the pdf
Looks like Penny Wong has had enough and want to move on (link). The same article says:
"Senator Brown reiterated his party's support for an interim carbon price to start at $23 a tonne, with an emissions trading scheme to possibly follow"
I can't see how the new Labour-Greens coalition can possibly work because for The Greens a high carbon price is a matter of principle and for Labour their main principle is the latest opinion polls and the public doesn't want a high price on carbon. This must come unstuck for the same reason that The Greens did not support Rudd's original ETS because it was too moderate.
Anyway, it will be entertaining to watch.
Ironically, Labor's climate policy, troubled as it was, in the end helped gain them the support of the four extra members that they needed - Bandt, Wilkie, Windsor and Oakeshott.
I don't think the Greens want to get rid of Penny Wong. They are just flexing their new muscles.
Received by email:
"I had a couple of observations on your paper "An evaluation of the targets and timetables of the proposed Australian ETS" that I thought you might find interesting.
By way of background, I work in the Australian Power Industry and my team would have been trading emission permits under the proposed CPRS.
My first observation is that the proposed Australian ETS (CPRS) allowed unlimited purchases of international permits.
Secondly, you have assumed that carbon emitted per quad of coal is constant for all types of coals. Australia uses large amounts of lignite to produce electricity. Replacing a lignite power station with an efficient natural gas power station is about the same as replacing a black coal station with nuclear station.
So the Australian strategy up to 2020 was to achieve 20% renewable energy by 2020 through a separate scheme, replace lignite and, to a lesser extent, black coal with natural gas and then buy the balance of the gap from overseas through international permits (properly accredited).
Apart from these points I thought your paper was put together very well and makes very important points.
regards"
Greg Combet becomes Climate Change Minister (link)
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